Source: Commercial Vehicle of the new network: Keywords:
Heavy truck sales growth is difficult to sustainable, low growth sustainable 1 - 2 years, heavy truck market structure is changing. 1 - May cumulative sales of heavy trucks reached 48 million units, sales continue to remain high. We believe that in the macroeconomic steady growth pattern, the heavy truck industry is still in the digestion of the super good, while superimposed heavy truck replacement peak, is expected in the next 1-2 years, heavy truck sales can still maintain the steady growth of low growth trend, but high growth Difficult to continue. At the same time, the market structure of the heavy truck industry is changing. The future market of heavy truck sales is increasing in the overseas market. The domestic market is highly competitive and the growth mode is changing. From the extensive development of the scale to the connotative development, Demand is also undergoing tremendous changes, will pay more attention to comfort, reliability, economy; export market benefit from all the way strategy, is actively developing. China's heavy truck export layout earlier, the highest performance flexibility.
Emission upgrades will give the processor manufacturers a huge business opportunities for the mandatory emission regulations for the post-processor manufacturers to open a huge blue ocean market, the country six six-stage SCR will be more widely used, while in the national six-stage DPF is A variety of technical routes are required to be equipped with a post-processor device, so DPF will be from scratch, with massive growth space. As the DPF related technology is more complex, the industry barriers are higher, the domestic standard is relatively scarce, can provide six stages of the overall post-processor processor solutions are very few. So we are optimistic about the long-term development of the long-term development of the manufacturers of silver wheel shares in advance of the six-stage post-processor (DOC + SCR + DPF).
Electric heavy truck costs 3 times the traditional vehicle, and mileage is short, practical road is still relatively long. Hydrogen fuel cells represent the direction of future energy development, the relevant technological progress is rapid, but is still subject to cost and technical double constraints, practical also have a long way to go.
Natural gas truck market depends on the price of oil and gas. At the same time the development of heavy truck market conditions, the first benefit is also restricting the development of LNG is the middle part of the industrial chain LNG filling stations, followed by the cylinder manufacturers, both benefit but not limited to heavy truck areas. Natural gas heavy truck engine leading enterprises Weichai power, because of its engine, heavy truck field performance is stable, and diversified development is smooth, but also high quality blue standard.
(000,338) powertrain in the field of truck leading enterprises, the layout of the hydraulic, hydraulic power management system, the new energy heat management system, the five countries six after the processor; Weichai Power (000338) powertrain leader in the field of truck, (300228) LNG cylinders and LNG equipment production leading enterprises, benefit from the development of natural gas industry chain.
Risk tips: heavy truck sales less than expected; emissions upgrade progress is less than expected; oil and gas spreads narrow.